Are you feeling a little worried about the current state of the crypto market? Well, you’re not alone. The current state of the crypto market is nothing short of fascinating, and Bitcoin seems to be at the centre of all the action. It’s been making waves lately as it continues to shake things up and flush out panic sellers left and right. With so much uncertainty in the market, it’s understandable that investors may be feeling a little anxious, especially with the assumption that Bitcoin may be repeating its past cycles.

But here’s the thing – while it’s true that Bitcoin has experienced some highs and lows in the past, it’s important not to jump to conclusions or make hasty decisions based on assumptions. As an investor, it’s crucial to take a step back and analyze the situation objectively. So, just how much truth is there to the notion that Bitcoin is repeating its past cycles, and should you be concerned about anything? In this post, we’ll dive deep into this topic and provide some insight to help ease any doubts you may have.

Market position

Let’s start by discussing the current state of the market and the pressing issue of the debt ceiling. It’s safe to say that the debt ceiling is a major concern that requires immediate attention. With only a couple of weeks to figure out the situation, Congress has a lot to decide on whether or not they will increase the debt ceiling. This situation has had a significant impact on the market, and even Bitcoin has not been immune to its effects.

The past week has been particularly rough for the market, and we’ve seen a dip in the prices of not just Bitcoin but also other cryptocurrencies and meme coins. This is due to the fact that investors are worried about the outcome of the debt ceiling situation. Will Congress come to a decision in time, or will we witness the first default in US history? The uncertainty surrounding this issue has led to a lot of speculation and fear in the market.

This could have catastrophic consequences for the global economy including a possible Armageddon. The repercussions would be felt not just in the financial markets, but also in the real economy, affecting businesses and individuals alike. It’s understandable why people are worried and anxious about what the future holds

Bitcoin predictions and repeating cycles

After analyzing the overall market trends, it’s time to zoom in on Bitcoin’s recent performance. It’s quite evident that we’ve been seeing a significant increase in liquidations in Bitcoin lately. The price has been experiencing some turbulence, dropping from around $28,000 to between $26,000 and $27,000. As a result, we’ve seen roughly $100 million worth of longs being liquidated, and it’s safe to say that it hasn’t been a smooth ride for many leveraged traders.

This market has been a tough one for leveraged traders, and many of them have been experiencing losses left and right. Even though some have won in certain situations, the majority have not been so lucky. It’s not exactly what we were hoping for. As we watch this current situation unfold, we all wish to see a few red candles and some short liquidations. However, that doesn’t seem to be the current reality. Instead, we’re witnessing the opposite trend, which is causing concern among Bitcoin enthusiasts. The unpredictable nature of Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole can be frustrating at times, but it’s important to remember that volatility is a common feature of this space.

With the recent movements in the market, a lot of analysts are predicting that Bitcoin may drop to 25 thousand dollars. As for my personal view, I tend to take a more neutral stance on such predictions. I acknowledge that they may be accurate or they may be completely off the mark. Nevertheless, it’s important to consider all opinions from experts on both sides of the spectrum to have a more comprehensive market analysis. Some people are now of the belief that Bitcoin needs to hit 25 thousand dollars and once it does, it will be poised for the next bull run. Assuming that this prediction comes to fruition, it could potentially be good news for the industry. However, it’s important to note that nothing is a sure shot, and it would be a huge mistake to make assumptions without proper research and analysis.

Now, let’s take a closer look at the potential scenario of Bitcoin dipping back down to $25,000. When it comes to the market and how it moves, there are a plethora of opinions out there. However, It’s my belief that ultimately, the market will dictate how Bitcoin moves, regardless of any predictions or theories out there. However, I’m not the first to express this sentiment. What would happen if the market were to dip back down to $25,000?

One such theory is that if Bitcoin does indeed drop back down to $25,000, Some may argue that this is a form of manipulation, designed to flush out panic sellers. Panic selling has been prevalent in the market as of late, and this method is a way to exploit that fear. Once these sellers are out of the picture, it could pave the way for a strong rebound and the next leg up for Bitcoin. While it’s impossible to say for certain whether this theory will prove to be true, it’s worth noting that similar methods, such as the Wykoff method, which is designed to create artificial demand and supply levels to manipulate the market.

Moving Average Analysis

Traders use various analysis techniques, such as Fibonacci levels and moving averages, to predict market trends. Speaking of moving averages, take a look at the 200 moving averages – it’s an interesting one to keep an eye on.

One thing that has become clear over time is that Bitcoin tends to follow certain recurring patterns. These patterns can be observed on a weekly basis and can provide valuable insights into Bitcoin’s performance. That is where the indicator -200 EMA, which stands for the 200-day Exponential Moving Average, comes into play. It serves as a crucial support level for Bitcoin, especially during times of crisis. We saw this play out during the 2020 COVID crash, where the 200 EMA acted as a fundamental base for Bitcoin, providing it with much-needed stability.

While Bitcoin has broken through this support level in the past, it still remains a formidable resistance level that Bitcoin tends to bounce off of, especially when it’s at the bottom. It’s interesting to note that this pattern has repeated itself in the past. In 2015 and 2019, bitcoin hovered around the 200 EMA line for several months. In 2018, we saw the same thing happen. Although we eventually recovered from the dip, we quickly came back down and barely managed to stay above the 200 EMA for months.

In 2020, we witnessed a similar occurrence where Bitcoin broke through the 200 EMA for several weeks. However, that was merely a panic drop that quickly recovered. Currently, we are experiencing another retest of the 200 EMA after having broken above it, which is a promising sign if we’re following previous patterns. If history repeats itself, we may finally be ready to move forward.

Bitcoin is a cryptocurrency that has gone through many phases and cycles. Each cycle is unique, influenced by various macro and external factors, including regulations and global events. However, despite these differences, bitcoin continues to move forward, with its fundamentals growing stronger every year. The number of Bitcoin holders, addresses, and hash rate continue to increase, reflecting the cryptocurrency’s growing popularity and adoption. These fundamental factors are crucial to the long-term success of Bitcoin and provide a strong foundation for its future growth. The continued growth and development of Bitcoin are certainly promising signs.

Staying in the green

There’s an interesting observation that recently surfaced via a chart shared on Twitter by LookOnChain. This chart shows the trading activity of a mysterious whale who made some remarkable calls on Bitcoin’s price movements. Back in December 2022, when bitcoin was trading around $16,000-$17,000, this whale made some significant purchases of 280, 680, and 1,000 bitcoin. Later, as the price of bitcoin surged past $20,000, the whale bought another 1,300 bitcoin. When the price hit $30,000, the whale decided to take some profits, but not a significant amount. This decision was driven by the need to have some cash on hand in case of a bad day. Recently, the same whale made another move, purchasing 867 bitcoin at $26,000 and 330 bitcoin at $27,000.


This pattern of buying low and taking profits at high points is a valuable lesson for all traders. This is a great example of how even whales make smart investments. Sometimes, it’s best to replenish some cash on hand in case of a rainy day. The key takeaway from this observation is that taking profit when in the green is never a bad idea. It’s important to have a plan in place and not get too greedy when investing in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. By taking profit strategically, you can safeguard your investment and potentially increase your returns in the long run.

To Conclude

So, as an investor, it’s important to keep an open mind and take a long-term approach when it comes to investing in Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. While there may be some bumps in the road, it’s crucial to stay focused on the bigger picture and remain patient and level-headed.

Building on the concept of having a cash pile, it’s important to have a plan in place when investing in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. This includes having a cash reserve of 20 per cent to 25 per cent, or even 30 per cent, to ensure that you’re able to buy low and sell high. Even whales with thousands of Bitcoins follow the same pattern. The strategy remains the same, regardless of the amount of Bitcoin you have or how wealthy you are. When the market experiences a dip or a rainy day, having cash on the side will give you the flexibility to continue to the dollar-cost average (DCA) or to make strategic purchases. The key is to not panic and sell when prices are low. Instead, buy low and sell high. This is the fundamental principle of investing in any asset, and Bitcoin is no exception.

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If you’re feeling panicked about selling your Bitcoin at the current price, it’s essential to remember that selling is not always the best option. Instead, take a step back and evaluate your investment strategy. Are you buying low and selling high? Are you holding a sufficient cash reserve to navigate any market fluctuations? By taking a calm and strategic approach to investing, you can potentially maximize your profits and achieve success in the world of cryptocurrency.